By Henrietta Appleton, Policy Officer (England)
This last weekend saw unprecedented wildfire occurrences across land uses, ecosystems and regions. Until we have the data, we cannot be definitive, but it feels worse than 2022 and is being dubbed by experts, the 2026 firewave.
Whilst I would often be flagging the consequences of these wildfire events on wildlife, carbon stores, human health and air quality, water quality, members of the public (evacuations, road closures, school closures etc) and businesses including farming, I have called this blog “Facing the Firewave” to emphasise the extreme risk that both the Fire & Rescue Services and volunteer firefighters such as gamekeepers and farmers are taking to try and protect our semi-natural habitats in particular. This risk to life seems to be underrated in policy considerations yet we just have to look at the fatalities seen in Spain to see what might happen if we don’t act now to prevent these severe wildfires from happening.
It is difficult to explain what it is like on the ground fighting a wildfire (especially as I haven’t fought one) but from listening to others and watching video the risks are significant due to changing wind directions (the last 24-48 hours has seen strong winds which has just added to the risk), the fire reacting to different fuel types and loads, the problems of terrain, the extreme heat whilst wearing PPE, the smoke and the need for constant vigilance particularly in a smouldering wildfire given its ability to travel underground and suddenly flare up. Watching these videos courtesy of the Peak District Moorland Group may just help emphasise what I am trying to say (make sure you turn the sound on!) - Facebook and Facebook
The need to manage the fuel load (the surface vegetation that supplies the fire with fuel and energy such that the more of it that is available the hotter and more severe a wildfire becomes) is paramount. The recent EFRA wildfire inquiry was extremely timely as the evidence it received and the messages being broadcast by its chair, Alistair Carmichael MP, emphasise this. He comments on the strength of feeling this inquiry generated from individual land managers as they feel that their experiences are simply not being listened to by policymakers. After wildfire, fire and risk, management was the fourth most used keyword and fuel management the strongest recurring theme across all responses the EFRA committee received (GWCT ChatGPT analysis). To hear the strong message Alistair is giving Government I urge readers to listen to the BBC’s World at One programme yesterday – see BBC Radio 4 - World at One, Major wildfire incidents declared in north Wales and Derbyshire
The World at One also interviewed Professor Claire Belcher. I have worked a lot with Claire to try and understand wildfire behaviour in response to fuel load and the role of fire in our ecosystems. Claire and other wildfire specialists as part of the UK Fire Danger Rating System project have developed the FireInSite fire behaviour prediction system that uses fuel moisture for UK fire prone vegetation types and local temperatures to predict probability of ignition. As a result, FireInSite was predicting 100% probability of ignition in many areas that were experiencing wildfire whilst the NGO’s Moorland Wildfire Danger Index was also showing extreme risk. In contrast the model used by Natural England, the Met Office Fire Severity Index, is based on averaged weather data and Canadian fire weather indices and so is not fully reflecting the situation on the ground. This was not predicting similar levels of risk.
As news coverage increases of the “2026 firewave", the current chapter in the wildfire saga that follows on from 2018, 2022 and 2025, this can only help to continue to raise the profile of the risk of wildfire and the need to be better prepared – both in terms of predictive models and mitigation measures such as fuel load management and firebreaks. I sincerely hope that the next chapter in this saga is not loss of life.